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But much less understood is the existential threat Winston Peters and his party represent to the three smaller parties on National's side of the House.
Then it's difficult to see how (or why) he would resist for long a demand from Peters to leave them shivering on the cross benches. He has been hammering the message that only a larger ACT can keep out of power Peters - who he has called "an ongoing national disaster" and who he has lumped into a "cabal of crooks" with Green co-leader Metiria Turei. Just as ACT could be crucial in keeping Peters from power, it is at least equally likely NZ First will be in a position to return the favour.
And ACT would be in a dreadful position sitting on the cross benches, with no role in Government, nugatory influence through its vote(s) and no friends in Opposition.
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In truth he is set to hold the key - as in "of the jail" - for the political futures of all three.